So should we bring out the champagne and pop the cork?

This week, the Singapore media carried the headline, “Singapore out of recession”. Said The Straits Times, “Singapore roared out of recession with growth of 20.4 per cent in the second quarter over the previous quarter, marking the first expansion in a year and prompting the Government to raise its 2009 growth forecast.”

Based on April and May numbers, it cites growth in the construction sector and a sharp improvement in manufacturing, particularly in the drugs cluster.

“The Singapore economy is back, and back with a vengeance,” HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde was quoted.

And so the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) now expects the economy to contract by 4 to 6 per cent instead of the 6 to 9 per cent decline predicted in April.

Then there’s the news that Goldman Sachs earned second quarter profit of US$3.44 billion – that’s after it paid back $10 billion in federal debt. Chief executive Lloyd Blankfein said the performance “reflected the combination of improving financial market conditions and a deep and diverse client franchise”.

On a more travel industry-specific front, Abacus International released data that showed a 111% increase, year on year Q1 2008 vs Q1 2009, for the top 30 hotels booked through the Abacus GDS system.

The majority (66%) of these hotels were located in China.
Importantly, according to Brett Henry, vice president, marketing for Abacus International.

“Worth noting is the Holiday Inn Binhai with increases in bookings of over 1000%. Meanwhile other China-based hotels, Traders Hotel Shenyang and the Shangri La Guangzhou, also recorded growth in bookings of more than 200% in the first quarter of 2009.”

So is this good news for the beleagured airline industry, I asked David Chambers, regional vice president-Asia Pacific for Sabre Airlines Solutions Asia Pacific, when I popped into Sabre’s new office in Singapore, which now houses Sabre and ZUJI/Travelocity.

“It’s good news for every industry, I reckon,” he said, but added, “We’ve not seen it yet though in the airline sector. There is a feeling of extremely cautious optimism not yet supported by the traffic.

“People are hopeful that travelers are coming back but the numbers are not yet showing.”

So when will demand come back, I pressed. “My guess is as good as anyone’s. I believe people are beginning to feel more optimistic but we will get a better feeling of when things will come back in 2010,” said Chambers.

Meanwhile, we got hold of a presentation given by Shane Batt, Partner, Sabre Airline Solutions recently in Europe which shared these predictions.

Aviation will be the first industry to recover, normally two quarters before the general economy and developing economies will lead the way.

Batt’s view of airline recovery: Middle East/North Africa – Q2 2009; China – Q3 2009; Australia – Q4 2009; South-east Asia – Q4 2009; India – Q4 2009; Latin America – Q4 2009; Europe Q2 2009; and USA Q3 2010.

Remember though, hope is not a strategy.