PATA predicts that international arrival numbers are to increase by an average of around +2.7% each year to 2012, a significant slowing down in growth rates from the pre-financial crisis level of 7% per annum. 



PATA Chairman Phornsiri Manoharn said the three-year projections were very much in line with expectations on how the global economy is expected to perform generally.

“Overall international arrivals growth to Asia Pacific destinations, for example, are predicted to be marginal at just over 1% in 2010, rising to around 4.5% in 2011 and then stabilising at around 4% in 2012. These forecasts are subject to any further major economic, social or health disasters.

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Destinations in South Asia are forecast to grow the fastest at an average rate of +4.9% per annum until 2012, followed by Southeast Asia at +4.8%.



Northeast Asia is predicted to expand at a rate of +2.2% each year over that same period, while the Pacific can look to increases of around +4.0% per annum. North America is forecast to expand by around 1.7% per annum to 2012. 



Growth is predicted to be very uneven at a number of levels but especially at the individual origin-to-destination country level.

Below are examples of some origin-destination pairs, which are predicted to perform much better than the average Asia Pacific growth rates to 2012.

By average annual rate of growth (%) to 2012


• Republic of South Africa to Fiji: +59%
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• Iran to Malaysia: +39%

• China (PRC) to Samoa: +37%



Some of these growth rates are off relatively small numeric bases so it is worth considering the actual increase in numbers for a similar set of origin-destination pairs.

By volume gain to 2012

• China (PRC) to Korea (ROK) - gain of 692,000 international arrivals

• India to Thailand - gain of 317,000 international arrivals

• Australia to Malaysia - gain of 292,000 international arrivals



With overall growth rates remaining much lower for the next few years, tourism-based businesses are expected to continue to find profits in cost containment rather than in volume growth, at least for the current three-year cycle.



Manoharn added, “These latest authoritative forecasts from PATA reflect the reality of the current market conditions. They point to a gradual and uneven recovery as the region picks itself up from the 3% percent decline in arrivals in 2009. We have witnessed significant changes in travel trends during the global economic recession. These changes have brought benefits to some and caused difficulties for others, and it is clear that the next three years will prove to be both challenging and increasingly competitive for all our members.”